Vercingetorix

No Worries had to switch outwards and then it looked as if Wylie Hall leant on him as he came alongside ... If it was not a flash in he pan then for me No Worries may pay to follow in the near future if the handicapper does not give him too much of a penlty.

The July is no easy race to win.With respect to all a horse with a 2/11 record will find things tough.You go thru the horses that No Worries beat up until his last race and you would have to say that that he would battle to win the July.But how did he get so close on Saturday?Is he a Derby type of horse?Was the pace that fast that these type of horses came into play.Wylie Hall im sure won over 2400.Would CtN have finished ahead of Verc over a little further?I KNOW the winning post was pointed out before the race but you would have to believe that that would have been the case.Did the 2000 ask more then it .jt answered?
The July distance must surely alter a lot.
The problem is that the dearth of real top horses results in us going over the top when something above average comes along.
Why wasnt NW nominated initially.You cannot assume that he surprised the yard.Surely Mr Van Zyl knew the horse he had,Or didnt he?

Just remember its a handicap and the best handicapped horse usually wins

Like I said Ben

Rememeber that No Worries was ridden off the pace for the first time and made a big difference with change of tactics , all other races he was pacing it out in front and ran way better with this adjustment , also the blinkers was up for 2nd time to help with the concentration. First time it was on they used wrong tactics by leading almost 4 lenghs going through 400m against CTN and V over 1600m. Now only to work out exactly how many lenghs it made a difference .
Some horses is much much better if settled from the back and some are much better gunning from the word GO.
Compare my crazy theory to Flaming Rock and Surfing Home , SH never ran a place coming from off the pace and Flaming Rock never ran a place when making the pace. I dont know why it took GvZ so long to find out how the horse wants to run to true ability , must be kicking his own arse , could have won a Grade 1 before this race


Hope to help a few confused punters to see it my way

I'm always wary of blanket finishes. Looks like this July is gonna come down to luck in running, difficult to be confident about anything really. May pay to go with a bottom weight outsider each way and pray for rain!

Verc looks good but I'm less than 100% about him getting the July distance if they go hard.

But what counts even more against him imho is that he's both young and inexperienced. It will only be his 5th race. The July can be rough, with 20 horses, most of them older and harder than him, all going for the best running positions. If he takes a couple of knocks and gets squeezed, if he has to cope with older horses pushing him out, will he be able to come through at the end, especially if he has stamina limitations? Remember, also the size and noise of the crowd on the day. He won't have encountered this before.

I've a feeling the winner will be an outsider this year, some horse none of us has looked at seriously. If Verc DOES win it I will be full of admiration (and amazement)!

I would not run him in the July, but if MDK feel that he can find another 2 or 3 lengths improvement in him before the july then its a no brainer. I agree with Mavoureen, at this early stage the July is a tough nut to crack BUT then again you cant become a champion by running away......

Saksy Wrote:

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> I'm always wary of blanket finishes. Looks like
> this July is gonna come down to luck in running,
> difficult to be confident about anything really.
> May pay to go with a bottom weight outsider each
> way and pray for rain!

....still a 3yr Old that is unexposed to the rest of them..... and with a MR 104 may not such an outsider.....but if not run before the big one will be at the bottom of the weights...and his name is.....

......King Of Pain............or if they allow a 3yr old with MR in the double figures which I doubt.... De Kock may have another up his sleeve....:

Muhtiman Wrote:

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> Saksy Wrote:
>

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>

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> > I'm always wary of blanket finishes. Looks like
> > this July is gonna come down to luck in
> running,
> > difficult to be confident about anything
> really.
> > May pay to go with a bottom weight outsider
> each
> > way and pray for rain!
>
> ....still a 3yr Old that is unexposed to the rest
> of them..... and with a MR 104 may not such an
> outsider.....but if not run before the big one
> will be at the bottom of the weights...and his
> name is.....
>
> ......King Of Pain............or if they allow a
> 3yr old with MR in the double figures which I
> doubt.... De Kock may have another up his
> sleeve....:


that would be Alexander Palace
No idea of his mr though

ALEXANDRA PALACE remains a 92

Titch Wrote:

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> ALEXANDRA PALACE remains a 92


thank you.does that mean he won't be considered.Is he carded any time soon?

Ben-Hur Wrote:

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> Muhtiman Wrote:
>

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>

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> > Saksy Wrote:
> >
>

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>
> >

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> > > I'm always wary of blanket finishes. Looks
> like
> > > this July is gonna come down to luck in
> > running,
> > > difficult to be confident about anything
> > really.
> > > May pay to go with a bottom weight outsider
> > each
> > > way and pray for rain!
> >
> > ....still a 3yr Old that is unexposed to the
> rest
> > of them..... and with a MR 104 may not such an
> > outsider.....but if not run before the big one
> > will be at the bottom of the weights...and his
> > name is.....
> >
> > ......King Of Pain............or if they allow
> a
> > 3yr old with MR in the double figures which I
> > doubt.... De Kock may have another up his
> > sleeve....:
>
>
> that would be Alexander Palace
> No idea of his mr though

No you guys are ice cold.....SANSHAAWES is bubbling under the 3 digits.....wonder if the fact he is with MDK will get him in.....: