My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

heinrich
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Re: My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

1 year 10 months ago

Now it's time for the Colts RACE....the SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT RACE.

RACE TIMES:

1st SEC 2nd SEC 3rd SEC 4TH SEC L200M TIME
14.04 23.36 24.85 23.89 12.49 86.14

FINISHING SPEED: L400M = 103.01%
L200M = 98.52%

What does THE PACE OF THE RACE SAY:

WINNER/HORSE L400T L200T L400% L200%

SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT: 23.08 11.84 106.63% 103.95%

GIMMEANOTHERCHANCE: 23.91 12.55 103.02% 98.14%

GUY GIBSON: 23.89 12.49 103.30% 98.79%

FIRE N FLAMES: 23.65 12.23 104.43% 100.98%
-
WINTER GAMES: 23.98 12.33 103.09% 100.25%

HAWKBILL: 23.54 12.11 105.04% 102.09%

CAPTAIN WARA: 24.24 12.72

KUPHOLIWE: 25.01 13.26

So what did we learn here...

PACE OF THE RACE.....

It was an hot early pace as could be seen by all those in front fading fast the last 200m....except for GIMMEANOTHERCHANCE and WINTER GAMES. BOth of whom can be upgraded on basis of this performance.

DISADVANTAGED By the PACE...

GIMMEANOTHERCHANCE:
Had a Bad draw to overcome and hit the front looking like a winner..no doubt that wide trip early,on a hot pace caused him to waste plenty of energy which he could've saved with a better draw,which is illustrated by him slowing down drastically the last 200m But ....1 to follow.

WINTER GAMES:
Looks an out and out Sprinter and can be followed over shorter....He ran his L200M at exactly his RACE speed which is quite impressive after enduring a hot pace early on....His last 100m was very good indeed from that point of view and is a must to be followed over sprints

ADVANTAGED by the Pace....

SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT:
Was slow out an although I say he was Advantaged....he had to run some huge sectionals from a hot pace to win. His last 600/400 and 200m splits were INCREDIBLE and he is certainly a future GROUP 1 WINNER.His splits were SPECIAL indeed but He wasn't as impressive as MAIN DEFENDER earlier the day....but probably 2nd best on the day....

FIRE AND FLAMES:
Had the worst of the draws but moved up dangerously from the 800 - 400m and only tired the Last 200m. No doubt he will do better over SPRINT TRIPS but he can also get 1400m easily with a better draw. Was a Good run from him indeed. It's a pity his trainer did not put him in the Sprint RACE on Sunday but we follow over shorter!!!! Maybe at Scottsville!!!!

HAWK BILL:
His penny dropped late on and is a must to be follow over distance..tOo early to tell if he will get 2400m but certainly will go 2000m so he is 1 for the black book for future staying races.

It's a pity we don't have sectionals for TURFFIES as I would've loved the times for LUCKY LAD....But I want to warn all those LL followers....Yes he is a serious racehorse and is on the up....

But in MAIN DEFENDER and SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT....you have 2 future Group 1 winners aswell.....Come Sunday....I'll be siding with MAIN DEFENDER....ofcoz!!!!!!🤫🤫🤫😄😄😄

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PeterD
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Re: My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

1 year 10 months ago

#868416

Thanks for this.
Lucky Lad hasn’t run beyond the sprints yet, but on pedigree should enjoy the mile. While I agree that both Main Defender and Sandringham Summit are Gr1 class, Lucky Lad is still the one they have to beat. On collateral form I think that he holds them both. Sadly, this great contest will be marred by the draws on a track that has a notorious bias.
The Jhb 2yos have been superior to the Cape this season, which hasn’t been the case in recent years. It will be very interesting to see what happens next year in the classics.

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heinrich
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Re: My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

1 year 10 months ago

#868592

Now it's time for THE RACE....the DURBAN JULY RACE....

LET's take a look at the BIG ONE....

On averages...This was the BEST RACE on the day. The Quality of over doesn't normally ensure the Best RACE of the day...but this time it lived up to its billing.let's look at the times...

RACE TIMES:

1st SEC 2nd SEC 3rd SEC 4TH SEC 5TH SEC 6TH SEC L200M TIME
14.19 22.47 23.47 24.81 25.40 23.32 12.08 133.86

FINISHING SPEED: L400M = 104.36%
L200M = 100.73%

What does THE PACE OF THE RACE SAY:

The PACE WAS SUICIDAL and the frontrunner went just far too fast. In fact..he went so fast that the race time to 1400m was FASTER than that of thefastest 1400m RACE on the day. It was a BRUTAL pace set!!!!

WINNER/HORSE L400T L200T L400% L200%

WINCHESTER MANSION: 23.52 12.06 103.47% 100.99%

SEE IT AGAIN: 23.36 12.12 104.21% 100.43%

BLESS MY STARS: 23.90 12.19 102.28% 100.27%

DO IT AGAIN: 23.74 12.02 103.10% 101.81%

SECOND BASE: 23.72 12.16 103.22% 100.68%

DAVE THE KING: 24.42 12.46 100.32% 98.31%

TRIP OF FORTUNE: 23.64 12.18 103.67% 100.61%

SAFE PASSAGE: 23.47 12.05 102.70% 99.78%

Who was DISADVANTAGED by the PACE OF THE RACE:

DAVE THE KING:
As i said it was a suicidal pace and quite an idiotic ride so to speak. This horse showed tremendous guts in the straight and only faded at the 200m...yet still ran 6th! OVer 200m shorter with Hewitson (a master from the front!!!!) Up he surely has an 1st 3 chance

MANCHESTER MANSION:
Sat in 4th place throughout so endured a fast pace but was tremendous in winning with some good sectionals.But the lights weight set him up to win but he still had to do the job.Defnitely came on loads with that gelding.

Those to FOLLOW...

SEE IT AGAIN:
He had the Best 400m time in the race but still didn't win???!!! It's ironic so to speak. He showed a devasting turn of foot from the 400 - 200m and that cost him the race the last 100m....that and that weight he had to carry. But as he has proved...he is a serious racehorse.

DO IT AGAIN....
I heard or read he retired...a well deserved retirement at that. Just thought I'd leave this year....had he run on Sunday....and ran the same race...He would've won!!!!!

SAFE PASSAGE and TRIP OF FORTUNE..

Both ran crackers in the July...both were unlucky in there runs with the former receiving big interference in the 400m. No doubt in my mind would've run Top 3. Both had wide draws to negotiate.....both settled to far back becoz of that...BOTH are BIG RUNNERS on Sunday...of the 2...I prefer SAFE PASSAGE.

QUARTET for the Big Race

SAFE PASSAGE
SEE IT AGAIN
TRIP OF FORTUNE
DAVE THE KING
SECOND BASE......all of them boxed. Maybe ADD in 1 or 2 others u fancy.

FOLLOW TRIP OF FORTUNE and SAFE PASSAGE in runs to come....both were STRONG at the end of the race.

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heinrich
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Re: My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

1 year 10 months ago

#868607

I have no time to put up the CRIMSON KING RACE now....But

LORD WILLIAM and BLACK THORN are the 2 standouts from that race. Both were very Good in defeat and will be dangerous in their respective races tmrw.

All the best to all

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heinrich
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Re: My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

1 year 10 months ago

#868763

heinrich wrote:

Now it's time for the Colts RACE....the SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT RACE.

RACE TIMES:

1st SEC 2nd SEC 3rd SEC 4TH SEC L200M TIME
14.04 23.36 24.85 23.89 12.49 86.14

FINISHING SPEED: L400M = 103.01%
L200M = 98.52%

What does THE PACE OF THE RACE SAY:

WINNER/HORSE L400T L200T L400% L200%

SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT: 23.08 11.84 106.63% 103.95%

GIMMEANOTHERCHANCE: 23.91 12.55 103.02% 98.14%

GUY GIBSON: 23.89 12.49 103.30% 98.79%

FIRE N FLAMES: 23.65 12.23 104.43% 100.98%
-
WINTER GAMES: 23.98 12.33 103.09% 100.25%

HAWKBILL: 23.54 12.11 105.04% 102.09%

CAPTAIN WARA: 24.24 12.72

KUPHOLIWE: 25.01 13.26

So what did we learn here...

PACE OF THE RACE.....

It was an hot early pace as could be seen by all those in front fading fast the last 200m....except for GIMMEANOTHERCHANCE and WINTER GAMES. BOth of whom can be upgraded on basis of this performance.

DISADVANTAGED By the PACE...

GIMMEANOTHERCHANCE:
Had a Bad draw to overcome and hit the front looking like a winner..no doubt that wide trip early,on a hot pace caused him to waste plenty of energy which he could've saved with a better draw,which is illustrated by him slowing down drastically the last 200m But ....1 to follow.

WINTER GAMES:
Looks an out and out Sprinter and can be followed over shorter....He ran his L200M at exactly his RACE speed which is quite impressive after enduring a hot pace early on....His last 100m was very good indeed from that point of view and is a must to be followed over sprints

ADVANTAGED by the Pace....

SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT:
Was slow out an although I say he was Advantaged....he had to run some huge sectionals from a hot pace to win. His last 600/400 and 200m splits were INCREDIBLE and he is certainly a future GROUP 1 WINNER.His splits were SPECIAL indeed but He wasn't as impressive as MAIN DEFENDER earlier the day....but probably 2nd best on the day....

FIRE AND FLAMES:
Had the worst of the draws but moved up dangerously from the 800 - 400m and only tired the Last 200m. No doubt he will do better over SPRINT TRIPS but he can also get 1400m easily with a better draw. Was a Good run from him indeed. It's a pity his trainer did not put him in the Sprint RACE on Sunday but we follow over shorter!!!! Maybe at Scottsville!!!!

HAWK BILL:
His penny dropped late on and is a must to be follow over distance..tOo early to tell if he will get 2400m but certainly will go 2000m so he is 1 for the black book for future staying races.

It's a pity we don't have sectionals for TURFFIES as I would've loved the times for LUCKY LAD....But I want to warn all those LL followers....Yes he is a serious racehorse and is on the up....

But in MAIN DEFENDER and SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT....you have 2 future Group 1 winners aswell.....Come Sunday....I'll be siding with MAIN DEFENDER....ofcoz!!!!!!🤫🤫🤫😄😄😄

The fact that S.S went off at 7/1 shows me how little is known about S.T....In truth I had a bit more on Main D than on SS aswell....but the price SS was ridiculous!!!!!!! I can't wait for The sectionals of yesterday to come out to see if S.S actually ran an better RACE than he did lto. Should be even better on the Turf Standside track....but we will never again get that price,lol.

I hope there are sectionals of yesterday....becoz as of now...there are still nothing

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naresh
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Re: My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

1 year 10 months ago

#868764

I still have a lot to learn about sectional time analysis.

What I have read, is that different class of horses will have par times for each distance. The faster the time could enable horses from the back to run on and in a slow run races horses in the front will be able to kick for home. A true run race will have par times.

In a slow run race, if horses from the back was able to run on and win or finish close up, it should be followed.
And in a fast run race, if the front runners hold on, they should be followed.

Sometimes the track run slow or fast, so they could be discrepancies when the track is fast that the front runners will hold on and run way above the class par times.

In America the Beyer Speed Figures for dirt racing takes into account if the track was running slow or fast for the day.

Timeform I think use similar principles.

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heinrich
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Re: My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

1 year 10 months ago

#868765

naresh wrote:

I still have a lot to learn about sectional time analysis.

What I have read, is that different class of horses will have par times for each distance. The faster the time could enable horses from the back to run on and in a slow run races horses in the front will be able to kick for home. A true run race will have par times.

In a slow run race, if horses from the back was able to run on and win or finish close up, it should be followed.
And in a fast run race, if the front runners hold on, they should be followed.

Sometimes the track run slow or fast, so they could be discrepancies when the track is fast that the front runners will hold on and run way above the class par times.

In America the Beyer Speed Figures for dirt racing takes into account if the track was running slow or fast for the day.

Timeform I think use similar principles.

Exactly. Although its not as easy as that. But that is the basic principle yes. And if followed just on those bare principles willdeliver some serious profits. I'm currently compiling STANDARD PAR TIMES but it's very to do so in quick time becoz just as u said....All classes have their on par times becoz the class of horse differ. Only with Par Times can sectionals be truly well rounded. ....and any horse can run on from a hot pace.....but those that do so from a slow pace...and a fast track....Will deserve extra special attention!!!! Like horses that runs on on a day when frontrunner have the edge....only now we will have sectionals to see exactly how good their performances were. BAsically.....Horses running against the grain...against the track bias....against the race bias is what you are looking for. Than you get horses like Sandringham Summit....who won of a hot pace (good pace) but produced extra special performances on the day....sectionals can determine just exactly how good it was

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heinrich
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Re: My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

1 year 9 months ago

#869242

Good Day Guys....

When I started with this thread I was hoping to analyse 2 or 3 races on every card so that we all can have Horses to follow(or atleast formlines) but time hasn't allowed me to do so as yet. But my research is starting to tone down and I can do what i set out to do,which is.....

Use S.T to help us find the 'Not so obvious' horses to punt in the future. As we all can follow a favourite👎🏼👎🏼👎🏼👎🏼But the key is to getting those longer priced winners and with S.T we can achieve this.

RACE 7

This is undoubtedly the race off the Day...I have no time to go into detail....

But all of AURORA STORM/WILLOW EXPRESS and FATEFUL DAY ran 'huge' last races, or atleast it looks that way. I have nothing to compare their respective races with as yet but on sectional percentages and finishing Speeds all 3 were impressive. WE and FD were even more impressive considering they come from races where the track was fast on the day and suited those in front. A STORM is a worthy Fav indeed and if fit should win this race....but those 2 won't go down without a fight. ADD in numbers 10 and 3 for TRF.Qrts

RACE 8

SENIOR GARCIA is the horse to beat. He has been running impressive splits lately and Fourie is booked.
NORTHERN WARRIOR was a little bit impressive on the clock last time Out from a strong form line so include aswell

GOODLUCK to all

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heinrich
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Re: My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

1 year 9 months ago

#869781

Let's have a Look at 2 races on 26 JULY that comes into perspective tmrw....There was 1 performance that stood out that day....above all else!!!!!

There were 2 races run over 1000m on the day...so let's take a look and Compare the 2 of them.

TRACK CONDITIONS:

The track was rated as GOOD with the pen at 22.0 and a slight Headwind blowing at 9km/h

RACE TIMES:

WINNER COR 1st SEC 2nd SEC FIN L2OOM TIME

SEATTLE RIPPER Mdn Plate 13.27 20.63 23.52 12.14 57.44

PHILISPIEL MR74 13.32 20.63 22.90 12.05 56.92

RAW TIMES:

The 1st 400m of the latter race was 23.65 while that of the Maiden Plate was 23.43 which means they went about 1.4Lengths faster for the 1st 400m in the Maiden. The 1st 600m of the Mdn Plate was 33.92 while that of the other race was 34.02 so they were still 0.6L faster. This is quite good considering the Philispiel race was 4 classes above that race!!!!

FINISHING SPEEDS: L400M L200M

SEATTLE RIPPER: 97.68% 94.62%

PHILISPIEL: 99.42% 94.47%

What does the PACE OF THE RACE say:

Well it clearly shows that they were slowing down much faster in the MDN PL due to the fast early pace.The track overally ran fast on the day and frontrunners/handy types held an slight advantage.

Let's take a look at the MAIDEN PLATE now....

On RAW AVERAGE TIMES ....This MDN PLATE RACE was 2nd overall only behind that of the MOYA WA LA LIGA RACE. While the strength of the race is suspect(due to the way the track ran) it's worth noting that the 1st 2 home did very well.....especially the winner, SEATTLE RIPPER.

Comparing the FINISHING SPEED: L400% L200%

RACE SPEED: 97.68% 94.62%

SEATTLE RIPPER: 102.16% 99.37%

As can be seen above the FS of the Winner was exceptional. He ran a cracking L400m and his L200m was exceptional. He ran the speeds of a good horse and will Defnitely win his fair share of races if he is kept sound. I have too little data to know exactly how good it was...but I can assure all that it was a bloody Damn good effort👍👍🤣👍

PLINIAN ran 2nd and showed courage in defeat and although he was advantaged by the track should be followed aswell.

SEATTLE RIPPER is running in the last tmrw and I think 7/1 is great value. Obviously the draw is a concern and I would have been almost certain he would've won had it been down the straight at Scottsville.Always risky going out the maidens and than around the turn....but if he repeats this effort we shall see him easing up late on.

Honourable mentions....

HONSHU (when winning his maiden) and NOTHERN WARRIOR are also 2 in the race who has produced good sectional efforts and warrants inclusion into all exotics. NW needs a hot pace upfront and is Defnitely 1 to look out for late on aswell.

Things will defnitely become clearer once I have established PAR TIMES for all distances than I will be much more confident in whom I label.

SEATTLE RIPPER is Defnitely a horse to follow over his next few starts...especially when running at Scottsville again.

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heinrich
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Re: My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

1 year 7 months ago

#872936

heinrich wrote:

Let's Continue...

We take a look at the MISS GERIATRIX RACE now.....

RACE TIMES

1st Sec 2nd Sec 3rd sec 4th Sec L200m TIME
14.66 22.49 25.69 22.73 11.31 85.57

FINISHING SPEED : L400M = 107.56%
L200M = 106.11%

WHAT can we learn about the times and Finishing Speeds above....well....the 1st 600m was run 0.75(4.6L) secs SLOWER than that of the Colts and the VERY HIGH finishing Speeds proves that the race was run at a crawl and turned into a Sprint...This race finished only 0.57 (3.8L) secs ahead of the Colts showing just how well the Colts did at the end...although MISS G ran a much faster time...the race of the Colts are surely that of better quality.

WINNER/Horse L400T L200T L400% L200%

Overall RACE: 22.73 11.31 107.56% 108.08%

MISS GERIATRIX: 22.37 11.31 109.29% 108.08%

RASCOVA: 22.85 11.72 107.74% 105.03%

EGYPTIAN MAU: 22.84 11.68 107.86% 105.46%

DISTANT WINTER: 22.64 11.66 109.01% 105.83%

WHITE PEARL: 23.18 11.93 106.56% 103.53%

SOLDIERS EYE: 23.30 12.23 106.35% 101.30%

BOSNAY: 22.97 11.88 107.91% 104.32%

TAMIL TIGRESS: 23.95 12.42 103.54% 99.83%

EPIC VIEW: 22.79 11.70 109.00% 106.16%

MISS G simply outsprinted them here as can be seen by her HUGE last 200M FINISHING SPEED (FS)!!!! The sectionals she produced was terrific and will go on to become a top sprinter...but That is obvious...lets talk about the not so obvious.....

Horses that was DISADVANTAGED by the very slow pace.....

DISTANT WINTER....

Ran on well between 400 -200m but than slowed down a bit afterwards...showing that perhaps for now sprints will be better.

BOSNAY...

A horse I backed in this race and a horse who ran a big race here....STEP UP in trip is what is needed and with a Good Draw will be a real danger late on. Her previous run was seriously impressive aswell,showing that...over extra ground she will be A DANGEROUS OUTSIDER to content with.

EPIC VIEW....

Along with BOSNAY is looking for further and will run well with a genuine pace upfront.

SOLDIERS EYE...

Was baulked,switched and eased in running...seriously unlucky and has gotten wide draws last 2 runs....has shown early pace...so if getting a good draw...WATCH OUT!!!!!!

WIDE TRIP....

EGYPTIAN MAU...

Had a very wide trip throughout and was still running on at the end showing that the mile will suite down to the ground..

RASCOVA....

Was also blocked and still came home 2nd best of all....so is also looking for further.

EGYPTIAN MAU and RASCOVA will probably be the favs heading into Sunday....of the 2 of them....EGYPTIAN MAU is the better horse...all depends who gets the better draw

BOSNAY/EPIC VIEW/SOLDIERS EYE are the not so obvious horses to follow over a little bit further with better draws....

Come Sunday...the Fillies RACE will be very open.....better load up there.

@MWW......I was looking for this post now. I was expecting EGYPTIAN MAU to win that 1600m RACE on Gold Cup Day.....so in essence....in truth you are very correct. EM should win on form alone. But I think MSL and LTG are the roughies,especially the former

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manwatweet
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Re: My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

1 year 7 months ago

#873082

heinrich wrote:

heinrich wrote:

Let's Continue...

We take a look at the MISS GERIATRIX RACE now.....

RACE TIMES

1st Sec 2nd Sec 3rd sec 4th Sec L200m TIME
14.66 22.49 25.69 22.73 11.31 85.57

FINISHING SPEED : L400M = 107.56%
L200M = 106.11%

WHAT can we learn about the times and Finishing Speeds above....well....the 1st 600m was run 0.75(4.6L) secs SLOWER than that of the Colts and the VERY HIGH finishing Speeds proves that the race was run at a crawl and turned into a Sprint...This race finished only 0.57 (3.8L) secs ahead of the Colts showing just how well the Colts did at the end...although MISS G ran a much faster time...the race of the Colts are surely that of better quality.

WINNER/Horse L400T L200T L400% L200%

Overall RACE: 22.73 11.31 107.56% 108.08%

MISS GERIATRIX: 22.37 11.31 109.29% 108.08%

RASCOVA: 22.85 11.72 107.74% 105.03%

EGYPTIAN MAU: 22.84 11.68 107.86% 105.46%

DISTANT WINTER: 22.64 11.66 109.01% 105.83%

WHITE PEARL: 23.18 11.93 106.56% 103.53%

SOLDIERS EYE: 23.30 12.23 106.35% 101.30%

BOSNAY: 22.97 11.88 107.91% 104.32%

TAMIL TIGRESS: 23.95 12.42 103.54% 99.83%

EPIC VIEW: 22.79 11.70 109.00% 106.16%

MISS G simply outsprinted them here as can be seen by her HUGE last 200M FINISHING SPEED (FS)!!!! The sectionals she produced was terrific and will go on to become a top sprinter...but That is obvious...lets talk about the not so obvious.....

Horses that was DISADVANTAGED by the very slow pace.....

DISTANT WINTER....

Ran on well between 400 -200m but than slowed down a bit afterwards...showing that perhaps for now sprints will be better.

BOSNAY...

A horse I backed in this race and a horse who ran a big race here....STEP UP in trip is what is needed and with a Good Draw will be a real danger late on. Her previous run was seriously impressive aswell,showing that...over extra ground she will be A DANGEROUS OUTSIDER to content with.

EPIC VIEW....

Along with BOSNAY is looking for further and will run well with a genuine pace upfront.

SOLDIERS EYE...

Was baulked,switched and eased in running...seriously unlucky and has gotten wide draws last 2 runs....has shown early pace...so if getting a good draw...WATCH OUT!!!!!!

WIDE TRIP....

EGYPTIAN MAU...

Had a very wide trip throughout and was still running on at the end showing that the mile will suite down to the ground..

RASCOVA....

Was also blocked and still came home 2nd best of all....so is also looking for further.

EGYPTIAN MAU and RASCOVA will probably be the favs heading into Sunday....of the 2 of them....EGYPTIAN MAU is the better horse...all depends who gets the better draw

BOSNAY/EPIC VIEW/SOLDIERS EYE are the not so obvious horses to follow over a little bit further with better draws....

Come Sunday...the Fillies RACE will be very open.....better load up there.

@MWW......I was looking for this post now. I was expecting EGYPTIAN MAU to win that 1600m RACE on Gold Cup Day.....so in essence....in truth you are very correct. EM should win on form alone. But I think MSL and LTG are the roughies,especially the former