My SECTIONAL ANALYSIS (MSA)

Sylvester wrote:

Two big races over 1600m at Kenilworth 2 December 2023

Red fastest
Orange 2nd best
Yellow 3rd best

Yep that's the way it is.

I'll post my analysis from tonight on the days races.....Quite a few who were very very impressive...and if I might...a new SUPERSTAR might've made his appearance. ....interesting times ahead

MSA for KENILWORTH   2 DECEMBER

THE SPRINTS...

WINNER                                   1ST  400M            1ST  600M            TIME:              L400%               L200%

MISS GREENLIGHT                24.86                     36.03                     70.75              100.95%             98.75%

KING OF THE GAULS             23.98                     35.09                     71.35               96.07%              92.77%

THE REAL PRINCE                 25.07                     36.29                     71.64               100.67%            99.95%

TRIPPIS SILK                          24.86                     35.97                      72.09               99.75%              97.36%

THE RAW TIMES show....

KING OF GAULS ran by far the fastest times on the day....He did very well to stay on and win from the pace he set..He should go on and win more sprints and is 1 to follow here.YAMADORI from the same race was game in defeat and can be followed over sprints aswell....especially 5 furlongs.

THE REAL PRINCE

Was by far the slowest RACE run on the day...BUT!!!!! The sectionals THE REAL PRINCE put up has matched that of SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT and MAIN DEFENDER. The FINISHING SPEEDS of TRP is really something special and if he stays sound....HE WILL BE SPECIAL!!!!!!!!!! He ran MONSTROUS SECTIONALS.

Those who ran on from off this slow pace must Defnitely be followed(HOLDING THUMBS already won) and THE US OF A runs on Saturday...FOLLOW!!!!!!

 

Continuation of 2 DECEMBER....

THE  2 MILE RACES...

WINNER                         1ST 200M            1ST 400M           1ST 600M            TIME             L400MF            L400%              L200%

SEE IT AGAIN               14.30                     25.50                    37.28                     96.84            23.75                101.93%           98.81%

BEACH BOMB              13.85 (+2.8L)       25.01 (+3L)         36.87 (+2.6L)       98.63            25.57                96.43%             94.11%

NOTE:  The LENGTHS IN BRACKETS indicate how much faster the latter RACE was run.

Let's 'SEE IT AGAIN' but this time, through sectionals!!!!!!!!

Was it as 'POOR' as we thought???!!! THat would be the run  of CHARLES DICKENS,Ofcoz!!!! Let me start by saying that SIA was phenomenal. He run cracking sectionals and was a deserved winner. CD on the otherhand.....was 'better than SIA' at certain stages of the race...

to understand CD....you must know the following....He wins his races through the 500 - 300m marks. The Turn of foot he unleashes during those marks are simply breathtaking!!!!! But he does not have a 500/600m finish like 'brilliant stayers' have!!!! His upper distance would be a slow/medium run 9 furlongs at best. The MILE IS HIS BABY....And he is the BEST MILER in the land...but that's when he is ridden handy. When out of his ground he normally falls short in the last 100m....as evident in this race. 1 Can argue the 2nd run after a race theory aswell. Since he was far out of his ground in this race....he started 'running faster' at the 900m,where normally he does that at the 700m, which is underlined that his last 2 sections were 12 and 23 seconds slower than that of SIA.  He ran a BRILLIANT RACE up until the last 150/200m....but it also underlined his 'flaw'

Dear Trainer/Jockey....Without a doubt you have THE BEST MILER in the Land (for now).....You have a bad draw again....PLEASE...use him early and go sit in 3rd or 4th.....it might 'tax him early on' but with his tremendous TOF he will put 1 or 2 lengths on them in a flash in the straight. SIA Takes much longer to get going....when he flies home ...CD should hang on to win.

P.S   I am no fan of CD.....

RASCALLION...should Defnitely be followed after this run....especially over the 9 furlongs he is running tmrw.

Now...THE BOMB.....has landed!!!!!!

What does the PACE OF THE RACE say????

WELL....it was simply ridiculous!!! The jockey of RASCOVA simply got it all so wrong. Having backed Rascova I swore an appy was riding him (or maybe the jock thought he was in a sprint?!)He simply went far far too fast as is evident when comparing it to The SEE IT AGAIN RACE aswell as the Sprints on the day.

BEACH BOMBBBBBBBB!!!!!

Yes! She got the pace to aim at and finish strong but to win from that position and to run those sectionals was just BRILLIANT. I'll simplify my answer to....She is the next 'PRINCESS CALLA/MOTHER RUSSIA' I say that knowing full well that those 2 are BRILLIANT race mares and I'm under no illusions that BB still has a long way to go to come even close...but there is still ALOT of improvement to come...with age and distance,that is scary!!!!!!!

MISS GERIATRIX
 
How many times have I said this now!!!! She is a SPRINTER and will be a Damn good one at that!!!!!!!!!

RASCOVA...

This horse has a high cruising speed which makes her dangerous over shorter trips as was evident in this run. She went halter smelter and was only caught the last 200m!!!! DONT ignore her tomorrow!!!!! Her run when winning over 1400m in her penultimate was simply incredible....She had a VERY HIGH CRUISING SPEED and still kicked on at the end.This is not the same horse who MISS G beat in KZN.....This is a new monster. In truth I was hoping MXoli or ARRIES would get the ride (with no disrespect to the rider tmrw at all) but those 2 are BRILLIANT with sprinter/half milers....Anyways....she won't have the lead tmrw as RIPPLE EFFECT will be too fast upfront....but I see her handy in 3rd or 5th......

SECRET IDENTITY and DOUBLE GRAND SLAM....

Not as impressive as RASCOVA but dropping in distance is what they are looking for aswell,especially the Former!!!! SECRET IDENTITY won't be a superstar but she will climb the MR ladder with sprints...looks a decent sprinter. 


 

heinrich wrote:

MSA for KENILWORTH   2 DECEMBER

THE SPRINTS...

WINNER                                   1ST  400M            1ST  600M            TIME:              L400%               L200%

MISS GREENLIGHT                24.86                     36.03                     70.75              100.95%             98.75%

KING OF THE GAULS             23.98                     35.09                     71.35               96.07%              92.77%

THE REAL PRINCE                 25.07                     36.29                     71.64               100.67%            99.95%

TRIPPIS SILK                          24.86                     35.97                      72.09               99.75%              97.36%

THE RAW TIMES show....

KING OF GAULS ran by far the fastest times on the day....He did very well to stay on and win from the pace he set..He should go on and win more sprints and is 1 to follow here.YAMADORI from the same race was game in defeat and can be followed over sprints aswell....especially 5 furlongs.

THE REAL PRINCE

Was by far the slowest RACE run on the day...BUT!!!!! The sectionals THE REAL PRINCE put up has matched that of SANDRINGHAM SUMMIT and MAIN DEFENDER. The FINISHING SPEEDS of TRP is really something special and if he stays sound....HE WILL BE SPECIAL!!!!!!!!!! He ran MONSTROUS SECTIONALS.

Those who ran on from off this slow pace must Defnitely be followed(HOLDING THUMBS already won) and THE US OF A runs on Saturday...FOLLOW!!!!!!

I Wrote this about 1 year 1 month ago(after his 1st run)....He hasnt really lived up to this yet. Not following SA Racing atm...i switch to 240 and a race is running...TRP wins easing up. Heopefully he can now show his true potencial. 

There is defnitely Value to be had with ST....just need to understand them
 

No disrespect intended at all Heinrich but if sectional timing worked in SA you would still be following our racing.
The pace with our racing in mostly muddled up so it's hard to decipher sectional timing.
And then you have trainers using races to prep horses and scared of winning certain races so their MR doesn't go up.You just don't know what is going on in an average race to use sectional timing to our advantage.
HK different story all together.
 

durbs wrote:

No disrespect intended at all Heinrich but if sectional timing worked in SA you would still be following our racing.
The pace with our racing in mostly muddled up so it's hard to decipher sectional timing.
And then you have trainers using races to prep horses and scared of winning certain races so their MR doesn't go up.You just don't know what is going on in an average race to use sectional timing to our advantage.
HK different story all together.

You hit the nail on the Head Durbs. The reason why i gave up SA racing was mostly because of the inaccurate times(sometimes its missing, sometimes its incorrect). Its hard to build up data to draw up average times for diffrent distances and tracks. The pace of a race doesnt actually matter. I was speaking of ST in general. For HK, the use of ST is an absolute blast. I have seriously wished SA was in better shape with the ST.Its been here for long now, so its possible given, with time and effort, we can get standard times for SA Racing. But those in charge are happy with sending out the mediocre times.

I think pace is crucial Heinrich.
If they go a sedate pace you going to motor the last 400m as you have plenty horse under you and you have done no work.
A stronger pace is good for back markers but their 400 to finish shouldn't be as fast.
Pace is the most important attribute in racing.
An out and out sprinter can win a 1400m race if the pace is slow but has no chance if it's even the course average pace.
So a slow run race will obviously give a faster 400m to finish.
 

durbs wrote:

I think pace is crucial Heinrich.
If they go a sedate pace you going to motor the last 400m as you have plenty horse under you and you have done no work.
A stronger pace is good for back markers but their 400 to finish shouldn't be as fast.
Pace is the most important attribute in racing.
An out and out sprinter can win a 1400m race if the pace is slow but has no chance if it's even the course average pace.
So a slow run race will obviously give a faster 400m to finish.

100% correct. Which is why i set....if you can gather enough data for each CD than u will be able to get The AVERAGE SECTIONAL TIMES for each distance. Than from there , the Value of the ST will increase sho much more as than we will know exactly, how slow or fast the face on the day was