Vaal Sand Thursday

Feel Bold Approach and Mystic Tigress look good value.

The advantage of the low draws (1-5) over 1450m are currently (last 30 runs) very prominent...scratchings in races 3 + 4 may well be significant.

Chris van Buuren wrote: gavin lerena could have an excellent day.

what ever gav can do bling can do better

loving this chase for the title

Lumya my play good form behind her

Treble
Across the Ice x Lumya x Escudo

Magner has some nice runners today.

Especially as he is seemingly being supported, despite my jest about Magic etc, as I later implied, he is not without hope imo (and I assume H's opinion). I backed him on breeding lto on the sand. Not sure why he struggled to get into the race but finished strongly on that only sand run, still has 5l to find with Justash but if getting into the race earlier...

Boulogne particularly and Cryptic Clue (1 box though) are two more of LE's horses I think might be involved and possibly Republic (disappointed with the price). As with many others today though, not a race where confidence can be soaring.

Englander.. you seem pretty confident today! What are these easy races you are talking about? Swing the winners our way..

It wouldn't be a vaal sand card if it wasn't exceptionally tricky.

Not going to bore everyone with a detailed write up but just a few runners to include:

R1 To add a spanner in the works compared to others talking about Erasmus runners I feel tearaway should be included in all bets.

R3 Preference for attract the crowd and willing to give Arizona pie another chance.

R4 Preference for post grad and battle of arcole. (Sturgeon has some nice rides first few races which worries me as I can never get him right.)

R5 With the likes of Accross the ice and Mootahadee in there should be a good pace and due to that I wouldn't leave the fast finishing Stravinsky out although my preference is for uncle tommy.

R6 Ahlaam my initial fancy but won't leave out the likes of Sarasota and Crystals revenge.

R7 TT, Lumya and Usisi obvious inclusions I really fancy Bold approach though, on its run in Jan against the boys I was on track and super impressed added to the black book. Would also include she's a tiger as I feel Louis's horses are going to be coming back to form the next few weeks and she's dropped nicely in the ratings.

R8 Escudo and spellbound the obvious inclusions however I think some value may lie in Miss K at 20/1. She's dropped in the ratings and Louis made it quite clear last year how the handicapper murdered her last season, back to a competitive mark I think worth an e/w.

All the best chaps.

Chris van Buuren wrote: gavin lerena could have an excellent day.

Hope you correct as i really fancy his mount in the 6th on ROYAL TRIP

Hmmm Mantis, if you really think that then I think you should read my posts again. If, having done so, you still think I am sounding confident, I would suggest you come visit me in my idiot asylum and perhaps stay permanently! lol

Really, there is nothing I like today. It looks a very poor and difficult card for the most part. I agree with the two mentioned by THH that may be value, I have them 2nd and 1st respectively (good to see you THH and very helpful as always). I think Marsden has a fair chance in the 4th and Hey Dude may be each way value, the two that Colin mentions right there also and would form my quartet if I do one. In the 2nd, not sure why the Striker horse is getting the money unless a word is out, Return To The Sun seems the more logical choice to me. Good luck to Nik with Brace The Magic in the 3rd, I remember Nik thinking this one had some ability so a change of trainer and venue may help bring that about. Given the draws I would side with Attract The Crowd in that one, again can't see why the Striker horse seems popular (so be doing a Striker double lol). If not for the draw, I would be interested in Hazelnut. And that's more than enough from me on this card me thinks, I will be playing a few small idiots but none with much more than very tenuous appeal, just hoping really...

Be(s)t of luck to all

Two of the longer priced runners that I would consider are Brad's Surge in the 5th and Sarasota in the 6th - both run well over the respective trips and both are quite well handicapped imo

The 7th is competitive, but Usisi ows me, so hopefully today is the day :ohmy:

In the last, surely IF Connemara Black repeats her last effort, she should romp in again :dry:

Enjoy

POST GRAD mt e/w today and place bet
BOULOGNE place
ACROSS THE ICE strong winning chance
SARASOTA e/w and strong place
JO MALONE e/w
MISS K - place - like to watch MULBERRY BAY who won an Highveld Award for winning on the Sand(I give her no chance today)