Kenilworth, 23/07

FYI this video is WEIGHTED TO WIN full show, you will need to watch on yooobtube

Bob Brogan wrote:

Pick 6
Horse Racing
KENILWORTH
[8]/[3]/[1, 2, 5, 7, 8]/[2, 10]/[2, 3]/[1, 3, 5, 6, 7]

Long waiting for a meeting to start on a Saturday.. No early worms caught that's for sure

2 FUTURE TURN
5 LADY OF GOLD
6 STREET OUTLAW
1 PRETTY BETTY ew place weighted
3 BULLITT ew
CONFRONTATIONAL places

For some reason no racing in Gauteng over consecutive weekends :huh: So we have to do with Kenilworth, where the most runners they were able to attract in a race was 10 - seems that Greg and Justin have their work cut out :dry: - thoughts on the card -

R1: Fort Apache looks hard to beat - unless one of the first-timers can spring a surprise - they all seem bred for further - but one never knows

R2: As per the first, Future Turn looks even harder to oppose - seems to be some market support for the stable mate Nevada King, but the favorite looks home and hosed

R3: More competitive imo and any of 3 can win - for me I fancy Lady of Gold from pole position - should improve the trip; Tear Drop second best for me

R4: Iconic Destination all the rage, but I find it hard to split the top 3 in the market; on form Street Outlaw stands out, but not sure what the reason for the rest is - if repeating his debut win, I think he could be the right one

R5: Very open where most are well matched on ratings; I have been supporting (and losing my dosh on) Izapha as I believe he is better than rated - so at the odds I think he is worth an each-way bet

R6: 3yr old Young Love is favorite, but I think she may be too close in the weights to the older fillies, so I'm taking her on; Rain in Newmarket has been struggling to win, but I don't think she will find a much easier opportunity - well in at the weights and overdue for that 3rd win imo; Musical Glitch next best for me from So Flawless and Veronica Mars

R7: Major Attraction well in, but she has never won over 1200, so also vulnerable imo; Kitty Cat Chat dangerous at best, but may prefer the going on top, so main dangers probably Phil's Dancer and Walk of Fame, while the PE visitor Fly the Flag is not badly in and could also feature

R8: Think this won't be a hard race to win, so the first-timer won't have to be a superstar to make a winning debut; positive comments on the Snaith runner, so who knows - if neither of those come to the party, one has to consider all of Bullitt, King Mo and Not in Doubt - I find it hard to split those 3

Enjoy

and away we go!!!

Trainers making punters look foolish

Jockeys making trainers look foolish

Horses making us all look like fools

.....not my poison either....but beware as some of those mountain goats are a lot more shrewder than what us vaalies will ever be....:whistle:

Sylvester wrote:

and away we go!!!

Trainers making punters look foolish

Jockeys making trainers look foolish

Horses making us all look like fools

From a breeding perspective,

The winners dam, Fly By Night, won the Mercury Sprint.

The second place dam, Riva, has produced Belgarion.

In USA, Bloodhorse, has an article every week on well bred runners in the following criteria,

Performances of maidens who have made no more than five starts and who either sold for more than $500,000 at public auction, have siblings that are grade/group winners, or have dams that are grade/group winners. BloodHorse research shows maiden winners in particular who meet these criteria are more likely to go on to be graded stakes winners.

In South Africa lots of horses have won on debut at nice prices using the above criteria or within their first five runs. How many have ended up winning a graded race will be a nice statistic thereafter.

naresh wrote:

Sylvester wrote:

and away we go!!!

Trainers making punters look foolish

Jockeys making trainers look foolish

Horses making us all look like fools

From a breeding perspective,

The winners dam, Fly By Night, won the Mercury Sprint.

The second place dam, Riva, has produced Belgarion.

In USA, Bloodhorse, has an article every week on well bred runners in the following criteria,

Performances of maidens who have made no more than five starts and who either sold for more than $500,000 at public auction, have siblings that are grade/group winners, or have dams that are grade/group winners. BloodHorse research shows maiden winners in particular who meet these criteria are more likely to go on to be graded stakes winners.

In South Africa lots of horses have won on debut at nice prices using the above criteria or within their first five runs. How many have ended up winning a graded race will be a nice statistic thereafter.

and Confrontationa1 had two siblings that both placed debut then won nest over sprints but nobody told him about his family:whistle:

From a breeding perspective Race 3. This is what I look at. The bigger the price the better. Even if they run off the board, I know next time when I see them run their breeding history. Thats how I try to build my knowledge. Learning about crosses, got a long way to go.

1. Related to Felix The Cat, ML Jet
3. Related to Lamborghreeni
4. Family of Russian Sage
5. Dam is a Grade 1 winner. PeterD owned the broodmare at one stage.
7. Granddam is the dam of Soft Falling Rain
8. Same family has Swazi Queen, Lesedi La Rona, Bartholdi, Bright Green etc.