protecting the image of racing

rob faux wrote: Mister a, those were the punters golden days of race figures.......the difference between that and MR is like chalk and cheese .........opportunities still exist but far less frequently.

TheBluntPunt wrote:

mister a wrote: this post is written for no other purpose than to share with racegoers on ABC what can be achieved with form study and form study alone, absolutely no information, in the mid 90s I got very serious about punting and my rule no 1 to 10 was "block your ears" which meant that I did not want to hear anything anyone had to say about any horse in any race, so much so that I banned any chat about any race in my circle, I chose all the horses except two, one was selected by FZ and the other by my good friend Gerard, we sat at table 13 at Bruma Tattersalls and punted with the 13 or so big bookmakers that operated from there, we used an investor who gave 30k as an upfront fee for the first tip and he had 40k on the first bet at 9/2 at Bruma and 40k on out of town, the second bet was 200k on a 11/2 shot which we got on for him at Bruma and he got 200k on out of town, the third bet was to win over a bar and a well meaning friend who had seen our tickets was an owner in the trainers yard of the horse we had backed, he phoned the trainer who advised me over the phone to cancel the bet as the horse was out for a run in a sprint far too short for him and he was aimed at a mile race in a few weeks time, I let the bet ride because I had done my homework and the horse won easily, we had no problem getting on in the early stages of the big punting, we got our bets on with all the bookmakers and only went down to place the bets after the canter down, then as time went on some of the bookmakers would not lay to us anymore, we were getting 400 to 600k on a horse and our investor was also punting these horses with out of town bookies, I waited for certainties at around 5/1, we hit about 12 times after that and won over 2 bar on some of the horses, we got to the unusual stage of having to reduce ticket amounts after horses had won in order to help the bookies to settle us, our bets were on at 5/1, 4/1 or 7/2 and by the time the bookies took back the horses were 15/10 or shorter, the 2nd last punt we had as a team was a 9/2 horse selected by my associate FZ, one bookie took a chance and layed the entire bet to us after phoning the owner a fellow bookie who confirmed "the horse could not win", the luckless bookie had to settle us with a series of PD cheques over a long time period because he had not taken back due to the inside info, around that time i was hijacked one Monday and was told orders were to take me to a township, I was lucky to get away, the following Monday one of my circle MH was shot at point blank range, he put his hand in front of his face just in time to deflect the bullet through his thumb and into his shoulder, he was also lucky, we dont know if it was punting related but I made my decision and left racing for many years, MH stayed in the game, in 2005 I put Formgrids on the internet to share the wonderful tool with racing, my success was due to an understanding of handicapping, understanding the WFA scale and my own interpretation of it and a combo of Computaform and Formgrids and off course blocking my ears.

give us a winner then

mister a wrote:

rob faux wrote: Mister a, those were the punters golden days of race figures.......the difference between that and MR is like chalk and cheese .........opportunities still exist but far less frequently.

still plenty, patience is the key for bigger bets, the notes and watchlist can really help you, make them after every meeting when facts are fresh in your mind, also the trainers stats must be followed closely, i only punted big money on certain trainers, the trick is to know which trainer can bring his horse to the course the way he did last time, the trainers stats must be followed closely, i knew through careful study which trainers paid much attention to detail and relied on their professionalism to know they would not run a horse who was not 100% spot on that day, especially when the horse had showed the signs that he was ready, also remember if the handicappers job is to equalize the runners chances then when he makes an error he make a good thing of something, FZ is currently on a run with 9 from 9,
,

rob faux wrote:

mister a wrote:

rob faux wrote: Mister a, those were the punters golden days of race figures.......the difference between that and MR is like chalk and cheese .........opportunities still exist but far less frequently.

still plenty, patience is the key for bigger bets, the notes and watchlist can really help you, make them after every meeting when facts are fresh in your mind, also the trainers stats must be followed closely, i only punted big money on certain trainers, the trick is to know which trainer can bring his horse to the course the way he did last time, the trainers stats must be followed closely, i knew through careful study which trainers paid much attention to detail and relied on their professionalism to know they would not run a horse who was not 100% spot on that day, especially when the horse had showed the signs that he was ready, also remember if the handicappers job is to equalize the runners chances then when he makes an error he make a good thing of something, FZ is currently on a run with 9 from 9,
,

Absolutely -I think one of the main reasons the amount of winning punters is few is that so many try to swim upstream .....they feel compelled to try and defy the odds rather than let them work in their favor.
A perfect example is you will read on the site people who resent the strike rate of Marcus ,and want to back against him on principle-if you filter Marcus rides,using patterns,you can get his strike rate up to over 40%.
So in certain races you have a 40% chance of backing the winner so why try to find a winner amongst the balance where the other 60% chance is spread over as many as 15 horses, so your chances reduce to less than 5%.
The same principles apply to stables, draws etc ......it is folly trying to catch the exceptions right in a lot if races!